Political forecaster Logan Phillips had the 2022 election cycle's most accurate projections. His website, RacetotheWH.com, hosts all of his models - including his recently-released 2024 White House and Senate polling trackers. In this discussion, Logan talks his time as an Obama White House intern, his path to political modeling, recapping his hyper-accurate 2022 models that came within 1 seat of anticipating the GOP's 222-213 House majority, and gives a nuts-and-bolts Modeling 101 tutorial of what goes into forecasting and how he thinks about the field.
IN THIS EPISODE
Logan’s stint as a White House intern for President Obama…
How Logan gravitated to the field of political modeling…
Logan breaks down what goes into a political model…
Logan compares his approach to 538…
Logan talks lessons learned during the 2020 elections…
Logan breaks down how his model fared in 2022…
Logan talks the differences between forecasting Democratic versus Republican primaries…
Logan’s take on whether Republican polling intentionally “flooded the zone” to influence political modeling…
Logan’s big surprises of 2022…
Logan talks the DeSantis factor in Florida…
Logan’s initial thoughts on modeling the 2024 Presidential, both Biden vs. Trump and Biden vs. DeSantis…
AND American Institute of Architects, David Axelrod, Charlie Baker, Mandela Barnes, Joe Biden, Lauren Boebert, George HW Bush, butterfly effects, Hillary Clinton, Susan Collins, Dwight Eisenhower, Election Twitter, Emerson Polling, Excel, Adam Frisch, Google trends, Kathy Hochul, hope and change, impostor syndrome, Laksyha Jain, January 6th, Karine Jean-Pierre, Ron Johnson, Marcy Kaptur, John Kasich, Brian Kemp, Kari Lake, Al Lawson, lower-priority initiations, JR Majewski, Doug Mastriano, Cecilia Nunez, Dr. Oz, David Perdue, Marie Gluesenkamp Perez, QAnon, Rasmussen, Ronald Reagan, Mitt Romney, Marco Rubio, Tim Ryan, Larry Sabato, Nate Silver, Split Ticket, Adlai Stevenson, Trafalgar Polling, Harry Truman, Donald Trump, JD Vance, Wikipedia & more!